Project_Carmignac/detection_rupture.py

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Python
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2025-12-04 16:11:38 +01:00
import pandas as pd
def detect_ruptures(df, epsilon=0.05):
# Colonnes clés pour identifier les comptes
key_cols = [
'Agreement - Code',
'Company - Id',
'Company - Ultimate Parent Id',
'Registrar Account - Region',
'RegistrarAccount - Country',
'Registrar Account - ID'
]
# Travailler sur une copie
df_temp = df.copy()
# Colonnes de dates
df_temp['Centralisation Date'] = pd.to_datetime(df_temp['Centralisation Date'])
# Dates distinctes
full_dates = (
pd.Series(df_temp['Centralisation Date'].unique())
.sort_values()
.reset_index(drop=True)
)
# Combinaisons comptes × dates
accounts = df_temp[key_cols].drop_duplicates()
full_index = accounts.merge(
pd.DataFrame({'Centralisation Date': full_dates}),
how='cross'
)
# Agréger les AUM par clé
agg_cols = key_cols + ['Centralisation Date']
df_agg = (
df_temp.groupby(agg_cols)['Value - AUM €']
.sum()
.reset_index()
)
# Merge sur toutes les combinaisons
df_full = pd.merge(full_index, df_agg, on=agg_cols, how='left')
# Remplissage des trous par 0
df_full['Value - AUM €'] = df_full['Value - AUM €'].fillna(0)
# Tri
df_full = df_full.sort_values(key_cols + ['Centralisation Date'])
# Variation et valeur précédente
df_full['AUM_diff'] = df_full.groupby(key_cols)['Value - AUM €'].diff().fillna(0)
df_full['prev_value'] = df_full.groupby(key_cols)['Value - AUM €'].shift(1).fillna(0)
# Comptes qui perdent tout
df_zero = df_full[(df_full['AUM_diff'] < 0) & (df_full['Value - AUM €'] == 0)].copy()
# Comptes qui partent de 0
df_from_zero = df_full[(df_full['AUM_diff'] > 0) & (df_full['prev_value'] == 0)].copy()
# Colonnes pour le merge (sans ID)
merge_cols = [
'Centralisation Date',
'Agreement - Code',
'Company - Id',
'Company - Ultimate Parent Id',
'Registrar Account - Region',
'RegistrarAccount - Country'
]
# Détection des ruptures
ruptures = pd.merge(df_zero, df_from_zero, on=merge_cols, suffixes=('_old','_new'))
# Calcul de la différence relative selon epsilon
ruptures['diff_rel'] = abs(ruptures['AUM_diff_old'] + ruptures['AUM_diff_new']) / (
(abs(ruptures['AUM_diff_old']) + abs(ruptures['AUM_diff_new'])) / 2
)
# Filtrage avec epsilon
ruptures = ruptures[ruptures['diff_rel'] <= epsilon].drop(columns=['diff_rel'])
# Colonnes finales
ruptures_df = ruptures[['Centralisation Date','Registrar Account - ID_old','Registrar Account - ID_new','AUM_diff_new']]
ruptures_df.columns = ['date','old_account','new_account','value']
return ruptures_df